William Playfair - An Inquiry into the Permanent Causes of the Decline and Fall of Powerful and Wealthy Nations.

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This book was copy TYPED by
R.W. Jones
from an original print of the 1st edition held by
The British Library, London.
(Shelfmark: 432d12/432.d.12).

The resultant text was then compared, using a
text to speech player, against that of an original
print of the 2nd edition held by the
Library (Archives & Rare Books),
London School of Economics and Political Science.
This e-text incorporates the (very few)
modifications included in the later edition.

Images of the four Charts are not included nor
were they or the Indexes of the respective
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{Here appears before the fly-leaf the first chart, entitled
"Chart
of
Universal Commercial History,
from the year 1500 before the Christian Era
TO THE PRESENT YEAR 1805.
being a space of Three Thousand three hundred and four years,
by William Playfair.
Inventor of Linear Arithmetic"}

AN
INQUIRY
INTO THE
PERMANENT CAUSES
OF THE
DECLINE AND FALL
OF
POWERFUL AND WEALTHY NATIONS,
ILLUSTRATED BY FOUR ENGRAVED CHARTS.

---o0o---

By

WILLIAM PLAYFAIR,

AUTHOR OF NOTES AND CONTINUATION OF AN INQUIRY
INTO THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF THE WEALTH OF
NATIONS, BY ADAM SMITH, LL.D. AND INVENTOR OF
LINEAR ARITHMETIC, &C.

---o0o---

DESIGNED TO SHEW HOW THE
PROSPERITY OF THE BRITISH EMPIRE
MAY BE PROLONGED.

===========================

___________________
THE SECOND EDITION
___________________

LONDON:

PRINTED FOR GREENLAND AND NORRIS, BOOKSELLERS,
FINSBURY-SQUARE.

1807.

W. Marchant, Printer, 3 Greville-Street, Holborn.

---o0o---

P R E F A C E.

---o0o---

If it is of importance to study by what means a nation may acquire
wealth and power, it is not less so to discover by what means wealth
and power, when once acquired, may be preserved.

The latter inquiry is, perhaps, the more important of the two; for many
nations have remained, during a long period, virtuous and happy,
without rising to wealth or greatness; but there is no example of
happiness or virtue residing amongst a fallen people.

In looking over the globe, if we fix our eyes on those places where
wealth formerly was accumulated, and where commerce flourished,
we see them, at the present day, peculiarly desolated and degraded.

From the borders of the Persian Gulf, to the shores of the Baltic Sea;
from Babylon and Palmyra, Egypt, Greece, and Italy; to Spain and
Portugal, and the whole circle of the Hanseatic League, we trace the
same ruinous [end of page #iii] remains of ancient greatness,
presenting a melancholy contrast with the poverty, indolence, and
ignorance, of the present race of inhabitants, and an irresistible proof
of the mutability of human affairs.

As in the hall, in which there has been a sumptuous banquet, we
perceive the fragments of a feast now become a prey to beggars and
banditti; if, in some instances, the spectacle is less wretched and
disgusting; it is, because the banquet is not entirely over, and the
guests have not all yet risen from the table.

From this almost universal picture, we learn that the greatness of
nations is but of short duration. We learn, also, that the state of a
fallen people is infinitely more wretched and miserable than that of
those who have never risen from their original state of poverty. It is
then well worth while to inquire into the causes of so terrible a
reverse, that we may discover whether they are necessary, or only
natural; and endeavour, if possible, to find the means by which
prosperity may be lengthened out, and the period of humiliation
procrastinated to a distant day.

Though the career of prosperity must necessarily have a termination
amongst every people, yet there is some reason to think that the
degradation, which naturally follows, and which has always followed
hitherto, may be [end of page #iv] averted; whether it may be, or may
not be so, is the subject of the following Inquiry; which, if it is of
importance to any nation on earth, must be peculiarly so to England; a
nation that has risen, both in commerce and power, so high above the
natural level assigned to it by its population and extent. A nation that
rises still, but whose most earnest wish ought to be rather directed to
preservation than extension; to defending itself against adversity
rather than seeking still farther to augment its power.

With regard to the importance of the Inquiry, there cannot be two
opinions; but, concerning its utility and success, opinions may be
divided.

One of the most profound and ingenious writers of a late period, has
made the following interesting observation on the prosperity of
nations. {1}

"In all speculations upon men and human affairs, it is of no small
moment to distinguish things of accident from permanent causes, and
from effects that cannot be altered. I am not quite of the mind of those
speculators, who seem assured, that necessarily, and, by the
constitution of things, all states have the same period of infancy,
manhood, and decrepitude, that are found in the individuals who
compose them. The objects which are

---
{1} Mr Burke.
-=-

[end of page #v]

attempted to be forced into an analogy are not founded in the same
classes of existence. Individuals are physical beings, subject to laws
universal and invariable; but commonwealths are not physical, but
moral essences. They are artificial combinations, and, in their
proximate efficient cause, the arbitrary productions of the human
mind.

We are not yet acquainted with the laws which necessarily influence
that kind of work, made by that kind of agent. There is not, in the
physical order, a distinct cause by which any of those fabrics must
necessarily grow, flourish, and decay; nor, indeed, in my opinion,
does the moral world produce any thing more determinate on that
subject than what may serve as an amusement (liberal indeed, and
ingenious, but still only an amusement) for speculative men. I doubt
whether the history of mankind is yet complete enough, if ever it can
be so, to furnish grounds for a sure theory on the internal causes,
which necessarily affect the fortune of a state. I am far from denying
the operation of such causes, but they are infinitely uncertain, and
much more obscure, and much more difficult to trace than the foreign
causes that tend to depress, and, sometimes, overwhelm society."

The writer who has thus expressed his scepticism on this sort of
inquiry, speaks, at the same time, of the im-[end of page #vi] portance
of distinguishing between accidental and permanent causes. He doubts
whether the history of mankind is complete enough, or, if ever it can
be so, to furnish grounds for a sure theory, on the internal causes
which necessarily affect the fortune of a state. Thus, he not only
admits the existence of permanent causes, but says, clearly, that it is
from history they are discoverable, if ever their discovery can be
accomplished. This is going as far as we could wish, and, as for the
sure theory, we join issue with him in despairing of ever obtaining one
that will deserve the name of sure.

The meaning of the word, sure, in this place, appears to be intended in
a sense peculiarly strict. It seems to imply a theory, that would be
certain in its application to those vicissitudes and fluctuations to which
nations are liable, and not merely to explaining their rise and decline.
As to such fluctuations, it would be absurd to enter into any theory
about them; they depend on particular combinations of circumstances,
too infinite, in variety, to be imagined, or subjected to any general
law, and of too momentary an operation to be foreseen.

That Mr. Burke alludes to such fluctuation is, however, evident, from
what that fanciful but deeply-read man says, immediately after: "We
have seen some states which have spent their vigour at their
commencement. Some have [end of page #vii] blazed out in their
glory a little before their extinction. The meridian of some has been
the most splendid. Others, and they the greatest number, have
fluctuated, and experienced, at different periods of their existence, a
great variety of fortune. The death of a man at a critical juncture, his
disgust, his retreat, his disgrace, have brought innumerable calamities
on a whole nation; a common soldier, a child, a girl, at the door of an
inn, have changed the face of fortune, and almost of nature."

From this it is abundantly evident, that the theory he wished for, but
despaired of ever establishing, was one that would explain such
effects; but the object of this Inquiry is totally different.

When the Romans were in their vigour, their city was besieged by the
Gauls, and saved by an animal of proverbial stupidity; but this could
not have happened when Attila was under the walls, and the energy of
the citizens was gone. The taking or saving the city, in the first
instance, would have been equally accidental, and the consequences of
short duration; but, in the latter days, the fall of Rome was owing to
_PERMANENT_ causes, and the effect has been without a remedy.

It is, then, only concerning the permanent causes, (that is to say,
causes that are constantly acting, and produce [end of page #viii]
permanent effects) that we mean to inquire; and, even with regard to
those, it is not expected to establish a theory that will be applicable,
with certainty, to the preservation of a state, but, merely to establish
one, which may serve as a safe guide on a subject, the importance of
which is great, beyond calculation.

There remains but one other consideration in reply to this, and that is,
whether states have, necessarily, by the constitution and nature of
things, the same periods of infancy, manhood, and decrepitude, that
are found in the individuals that compose them? Mr. Burke thinks they
have not; and, indeed, if they had, the following Inquiry would be of
no sort of utility. It is of no importance to seek for means of
preventing what must of necessity come to pass: but, if the word
necessity is changed for tendency or propensity, then it becomes an
Inquiry deserving attention, and, as all states have risen, flourished,
and fallen, there can be no dispute with the regard to their tendency to
do so.

However much, at first sight, Mr. Burke's opinion may appear to
militate against such an Inquiry, when duly considered, it will be
found, not only to approve of the end, but to point out the manner in
which the inquiry ought to be conducted; namely, by consulting
history. [end of page #ix]

If it is allowed that any practical advantage is to be derived from the
history of the past, it can only be, in so far as it is applicable to the
present and the future; and, if there is none, it is melancholy to reflect
on the volumes that have been written without farther utility than to
gratify idle curiosity. Are the true lessons of history, because they are
never completely applicable to present affairs, to be ranked with the
entertaining, but almost useless, pages of romance? No, certainly. Of
the inheritance possessed by the present generation, the history of
those that are gone before, is not the least valuable portion. Each
reader now makes his application in his own way. It is an irregular
application, but not an useless one; and it is, therefore, hoped, that an
Inquiry, founded on a regular plan of comparison and analogy, cannot
but be of some utility.

But why do we treat that as hypothetical, of which there can be no
doubt? Wherefore should there be two opinions concerning the utility
of an inquiry into those mighty events, that have removed wealth and
commerce from the Euphrates and the Nile, to the Thames and the
Texel? Does not the sun rise, and do not the seasons return to the
plains of Egypt, and the deserts of Syria, the same as they did three
thousand years ago? Is not [end of page #x] inanimate nature the same
now that it was then? Are the principles of vegetation altered? Or have
the subordinate animals refused to obey the will of man, to assist him
in his labour, or to serve him for his food? No; nature is not less
bountiful, and man has more knowledge and more power than at any
former period; but it is not the man of Syria, or of Egypt, that has
more knowledge, or more power. There he has suffered his race to
decay, and, along with himself, his works have degenerated.

When those countries were peopled with men, who were wise,
prudent, industrious, and brave, their fields were fertile, and their
cities magnificent; and wherever mankind have carried the same
vigour, the same virtues, and the same character, nature has been
found bountiful and obedient.

Throughout the whole of the earth, we see the same causes producing
nearly the same effects; why then do we remain in doubt respecting
their connection? Or, if under no doubt, wherefore do we not
endeavour to trace their operation, that we may know how to preserve
those advantages we are so eager to obtain?

If an Inquiry into the causes of the revolutions of nations is more
imperfect and less satisfactory than when [end of page #xi] directed to
those of individuals, and of single families, if, ever it should be
rendered complete, its application will, at least, be more certain.
Nations are exempt from those accidental vicissitudes which derange
the wisest of human plans upon a smaller scale. Number and
magnitude reduce chances to certainty. The single and unforeseen
cause that overwhelms a man in the midst of prosperity, never ruins a
nation: unless it be ripe for ruin, a nation never falls; and when it does
fall, accident has only the appearance of doing what, in reality, was
already nearly accomplished.

There is no physical cause for the decline of nations, nature remains
the same; and if the physical man has degenerated, it was before the
authentic records of history. The men who built the most stupendous
pyramid in Egypt, did not exceed in stature those who now live in
mean hovels at its immense base. If there is any country in the world
that proves the uniformity of nature, it is this very Egypt. Unlike to
other countries, that owe their fertility to the ordinary succession of
seasons, of which regular registers do not exist, and are never
accurate, it depends on the overflowing of the waters of a single river.
The marks that indicated the rising of the Nile, in the days of the
Pharaos, and of the Ptolemies, do the same [end of page #xii] at the
present day, and are a guarantee for the future regularity of nature, by
the undeniable certainty of it for the past.

By a singular propensity for preserving the bodies of the dead, the
Egyptians have left records equally authentic, with regard to the
structure of the human frame. {2} Here nothing is fabulous; and even
the unintentional errors of language are impossible. We have neither
to depend on the veracity nor the correctness of man. The proofs
exhibited are visible and tangible; they are the object of the senses,
and admit of no mistake.

But while that country exhibits the most authentic proofs of the
uniform course of nature, it affords also the most evident examples of
the degradation of the human mind. It is there we find the cause of
those ruins that astonish, and the desolation that afflicts. Had men
continued their exertions, the labour of their hands would not have
fallen to decay.

It is in the exertion and conduct of man, and in the information of his
mind, that we find the causes of the mutability of human affairs. We
are about to trace

---
{2} Most part of the mummies found in Egypt, instead of being of a
larger size, are considerably under the middle stature of the people of
England. Those dead monuments of the human frame give the direct
lie to Homer and all the traditions about men's degenerating in size
and strength.
-=-

[end of page #xiii]

them through an intricate labyrinth; but, in this, we are not without a
guide.

The history of three thousand years, and of nations that have risen to
wealth and power, in a great variety of situations, all terminating with
a considerable degree of similarity, discovers the great outline of the
causes that invigorate or degrade the human mind, and thereby raise or
ruin states and empires. {3}

_____________________________________________________________________

{3} The utility of this Inquiry is considerably strengthened by the
opinion of a writer of great information and first-rate abilities. {*}

An historical review of different forms under which human affairs
have appeared in different ages and nations naturally suggests the
question, whether the experience of former times may not now furnish
some general principles to enlighten and direct the policy of future
legislators? The discussion, however, to which the question leads is of
singular difficulty; as it requires an accurate analysis of by far the
most complicated class of phenomena that can possibly engage our
attention; those which result from the intricate and often from the
imperceptible mechanism of political society--a subject of
observation which seems at first view so little commensurate to our
faculties, that it has been generally regarded with the same passive
emotions of wonder and submission with which, in the material world,
we survey the effects produced by the mysterious and uncontroulable
operation of phisical =sic= causes. It is fortunate that upon this, as on
many other occasions, the difficulties which had long baffled the
effort of solitary genius begin to appear less formidable to the united
exertions of the race; and that, in proportion as the experience and the
reasonings of different individuals are brought to bear on the objects,
and are combined in such a manner as to illustrate and to limit each
other, the science of politics assumes more and more that systematical
form which encourages and aids the labours of future inquirers.

_____________________________________________________________________

---
{*} Mr Dongald Stuart, whose name is well known and much
honoured amongst men whose studies have led them to investigate
these subjects: the intimate friend and biographer of Dr. Adam Smith.
-=-

[end of page #xiv]

_ADVERTISEMENT_.

---o0o---

_In the following Inquiry I have inserted four engraved Charts, in
order to illustrate the subjects treated of in the Book, by a method
approved of both in this and in other countries. {4}

The Chart, No. 1, representing the rise and fall of all nations or
countries, that have been particularly distinguished for wealth or
power, is the first of the sort that ever was engraved, and has,
therefore, not yet met with public approbation.

It is constructed to give a distinct view of the migrations of commerce
and of wealth in general. For a very accurate view, there are no
materials in existence; neither would it lead to any very different
conclusion, if the proportional values were ascertained with the
greatest accuracy.

I first drew the Chart in order to clear up my own ideas on the
subject, finding it very troublesome to retain a distinct notion of the
changes that had taken place. I found it answer the purpose beyond my
expectation, by bringing into one view the result of details that are
dispersed over a very wide and intricate field of universal history;
facts sometimes connected with each other, sometimes not, and always
requiring reflection each time they were referred to. I found the first
rough draft give =sic= me a better

---
{4} The Charts, Nos. 3 and 4, were copied in Paris, before the
revolution, and highly approved of by the Academy of Sciences. No. 2,
though of late invention, has been copied in France and Germany. Of
No. 1, the public has yet to judge, and, perhaps, it will treat me with
indulgence and good nature, as on former occasions.
-=-

[end of page #xv]

comprehension of the subject, than all that I had learnt from
occasional reading, for half of my lifetime; and, on the supposition
that what was of so much use to me, might be of some to others, I have
given it with a tolerable degree of accuracy.

No. 2, relates entirely to the present state of nations in Europe, and
the extent, revenue, and population, as represented, are taken from the
most accurate documents. Where statistical writers differed, I
followed him who appeared to me the most likely to be right.

Nos. 3 and 4, relate entirely to England, and are drawn from the most
accurate documents.

Opposite to each Chart are descriptions and explanations.

The reader will find, five minutes attention to the principle on which
they are constructed, a saving of much labour and time; but, without
that trifling attention, he may as well look at a blank sheet of paper
as at one of the Charts.

I know of nothing else, in the Book, that requires previous
explanation.

_________________________________________________________________

I think it well to embrace this opportunity, the best I have had, and,
perhaps, the last I ever shall have, of making some return, (as far as
acknowledgement is a return,) for an obligation, of a nature never to
be repaid, by acknowledging publicly, that, to the best and most
affectionate of brothers, I owe the invention of those Charts.

At a very early period of my life, my brother, who, in a most
examplary manner, maintained and educated the family his father left,
made me keep a register of a thermometer, expressing the variations
by lines on a divided scale. He taught me to know, that, whatever can
be expressed in numbers, may be represented by lines. The Chart of
the thermometer was on the same principle with those given here; the
application only is different. The brother to whom I owe this, now
fills the Natural Philosophy Chair in the University of Edinburgh_.

[end of page #xvi]

CONTENTS.

---o0o---

Page.

=BOOK I.=

CHAP. I.

INTRODUCTION and plan of the work.--Explanation of what the
author understands by wealthy and powerful nations, and of the
general cause of wealth and power......1

CHAP. II.

Of the general causes that operate, both externally and internally, in
bringing down nations that have risen above their level to that
assigned to them by their extent, fertility, and population; and of the
manner in which wealth destroyed power in ancient
nations...............14

CHAP. III.

Of the nations that rose to wealth and power previous to the conquests
in Asia and Africa, and the causes which ruined them...............20

CHAP. IV.

Of the Romans.--The causes of their rise under the republic, and of
their decline under the emperors.--The great error generally fallen
into with respect to the comparison between Rome and Carthage;
proofs that it is wrong, and not at all applicable to France and
England................27

CHAP. V.

Of the cities and nations that rose to wealth and power in the middle
ages, after the fall of the Western Empire, and previous to the
discovery of the passage to the East Indies by the Cape of Good Hope,
and of America.--Different effects of wealth on nations in cold and in
warm climates, and of the fall of the Eastern Empire..............44

[end of page #xvii]

CHAP. VI.

Digression concerning the commerce with India.--This the only one
that raised ancient nations to wealth.--Its continual variations.--The
envy it excited, and revolutions it produced....................51

CHAP. VII.

Of the causes that brought on the decline of the nations that had
flourished in the middle ages, and of Portugal, Spain, Holland, and the
Hans Towns..........62

CHAP. VIII.

General view and analysis of the causes that operated in producing the
decline of all nations, with a chart, representing the rise, fall, and
migrations of wealth, in all different countries, from the year 1500,
before the birth of Christ, to the end of the eighteenth century,--a
period of 3300 years...............70

=BOOK II.=

CHAP. I.

Of the interior causes of decline, arising from the possession of
wealth.--Its general operation on the habits of life, manners,
education, and ways of thinking and acting of the inhabitants of a
country................81

CHAP. II.

Of the education of youth in nations increasing in wealth.--The errors
generally committed by writers on that subject.--Importance of
female education on the manners of a people.--Not noticed by writers
on political economy.--Education of the great body of the people the
chief object.--In what that consists............94

CHAP. III.

Of increased taxation, as an interior cause of decline.--Its different
effects on industry, according to the degree to which it is carried.--Its
effects on the people and on government.............102

CHAP. IV.

Of the interior causes of decline, arising from the encroachments of
public and privileged bodies; and of those who have a common
interest on those who have no common interest.....................116

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